Real Estate in Changchun by Vivien Zhang Na
Introduction
Changchun is a developing city, with the development of the times, it is also constantly changing. In the rapid development of China, it almost every day brings new changes. And the best expression of a city changing factor is the construction and real estate and those closely related to, how real estate market in Changchun?
With 54 pieces of shanty towns delimitation, will be completely out of shanty towns in Changchun, Changchun now has 10 areas in the 10 districts is four development zones, and are net of areas, the high-tech zones, the open areas and car industry development zone. (authors : Sung Yu)
In this four development zones, many of the places suburbs, although suburbs, but developed real estate prices are still high, and the outskirts of the good environment, the urban people are now increasingly stress environment, and the hands of a majority of money and he does not know what good is in real estate investment, and economic development zones, Take: Last buy houses, and this year it doubled, and in seven years ago there was a field. rice and corn is everywhere, but not now the economic development zone, and now also the cheapest prices 1700/ square meters, the house in Changchun speaking, are high.
The town is also slowly to the Changchun local development. In several other areas are relatively close to the center is around, whether real or have no other place to the development, even development, the price will be high for investors can not benefit only the interests of small, but on different zones, Changchun surrounding areas are now almost all in the development.
The main purpose of my writing this article is to present an analysis done Changchun real estate market, although now domestic support for the revitalization of the old northeast industrial base government, many preferential policies for investors, but the risk still exists, particularly in real estate.
Changchun now against illegal secondary Housing, introduced many policies are beneficial or harmful thing, but also to be research on the sale of real estate, whether there are many pay personal income tax dispute, originally decided on August 1 after the implementation of the sale of real estate to pay personal income tax, but now they have no news.
For the real estate market in Changchun, seems inevitable can not escape speculation, almost all newspapers and magazines are sold difficult not only to queue up, you buy. However, the fact is the case? Adoption of the following analysis, you can own deduced. Changchun has the real estate market?
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
ChangChun analysis of residential transactions
Incremental analysis of residential transactions
1. From the regional classifications were read:
LuYuan area, ChaoYang area NanGuan area, ErDao area , KuanCheng area ShuangYang areas accounted for 25.9% of total transactions, 24.3%, 23.1%, 18.3%, 5.3%, 5.1%。
Note: LuYuan area, ChaoYang and NanGuan area public house in the area remains active region.
2. from the transaction price interval to see:
1,000 Yuan / m2 of the total transaction price for 5.7%;
1000-1500 Yuan / m2 total transaction price for 20.8%;
1500-2000 Yuan / m2 price accounted for 32.3% of total transactions
2000-2500 Yuan / m2 price transactions accounted for 16% of total
2500-3000 Yuan / m2 price accounted for 8.8% of total transactions
3,000 / Yuan / m2 square-price transactions accounted for 16.5% of total.
Note: 2,000 Yuan / m2 in the price transactions accounted for 58.8% of total market, incremental transactions fold to 2104.5 Yuan residential / m2, which is lower than 62% of the total residential transactions fold incremental, incremental fold higher than residential transactions accounted for 38% of the total. Note transaction price before the district moved, the average price index rose 1.9 percentage points.
Statistics showed that: China-spaces in the residential market is very popular.
3. From transactions Household patterns to see:
90 square meters of the total transaction volume of 28%;90-144 47.6%;144 square meters square meters of total transactions accounted for more than 24.4% of total transactions.
Statistics showed that: small Household patterns favored by the public, which indicates our strong domestic demand for goods, commodities our housing supply, a sufficient reserve, the total supply and demand continued to show oversupply situation, thereby ensuring a smooth real trend.
4. From transactions to see lots : Lot 4% of total 32.2%, five lots lots magnitude 6% of total 26.4% 10.3%% of total transactions. And 1, 2 lots only 9.9% of total transactions, 3, 5, magnitude 6 lots for 82.3% of total transactions. As traffic continued to facilitate the people to choose residence gradually away from the cities.
Residential stock transaction analysis
1. The regional classifications were:
Luyuan District, Chaoyang District, NanGuan district, ErDao District, wide City, town areas, the proportion of 31.1%, respectively, 24.6%, 18.9%, 12.7%, 10.5% and 2.2%. Luyuan, Chaoyang District, the NanGuan Housing stock transactions active.
2．Prices:
1000-1500 Yuan / m2% of total transactions 43.4%;
1501-2000 Yuan / m2% of total transactions 28%;
1,000 Yuan / m2% of total transactions 15.2%;
And more than 2,000 Yuan / m2 or more,
only 13.4% of total transactions.
Residential transactions fold to 1288.6 Yuan / m2 transactions fold lower than the total stock of residential transactions accounted for only 50%.
3, household types:
60-80 square meters per cent of the transaction total transaction volume 24.7%,80-100 30.6%,60 m2 15.4%,100% of total transactions accounted for more than the total
4． lots lots :
Lot 4% of total transactions 24.2%;
five lots-lots 18.9%;% of total transactions accounted for 17.3% of total transactions. 1, 2 lots only transactions total 22.7%; three, four, five lots, Housing stock transactions active lot.
From the above information, it is clear that the property prices and transactions Changchun, through analysis, we can see that what is oversupply, which is in short supply.
Changchun district planning future development
1.Chaoyang District
Positioning development: urban commercial center
Chaoyang District business developed, zoning highlighted three values planning 10 commercial streets characteristics of the guide are weary plots were given guidelines. To the planning period, Chaoyang City center will form a “three values, a large commercial center, 10 fine nieces, 12 housing units, an industrial park,” district building space structure
2. NanGuan Area
Positioning development: urban business and financial center
In the planning period, the South Gate area will be a double heart, multi-level, two-axle vehicles and multi-unit area of space structures.
3. KuanCheng area
Positioning development: urban industrial areas
KuanCheng area is the northern gate of the Town, maintained “North-South business,” “North South superior form of” development strategy. To 2020, about 56.1 square kilometers County district construction sites, will be a “one axis, two-, three zone” space structure system.
4. ErDao area
Positioning development: eco-eastern New City
“living North South logistics,” and “East West optimize expanding” 2 Road area development strategy. Building integrated logistics, industrial, agricultural handsome to the four regional groups and business and leisure tourism development, urban agriculture, water economy, construction and road networks and strengthen shanty towns transformation fully establish the “one city, a park, three missions, four axle more” spatial development framework.
5. LuYuan area
Development of positioning: the ecological vitality Metro Lu:yuan area located in Changchun west to 2020, Venice zoning district urban construction sites around 75.74 square kilometers, is suitable for the City Habitat. Planning period, the overall space Gardens district overall framework will form a “one city, two groups”.
6. ShuangYang area
Development Positioning: star city landscape
Princess City to the west of town reservoir, a long double-stack rail east. 2020, urban construction site is about 46 square kilometers, 150 square meters of land per capita construction / person
7. JingYue area
Positioning development: ecological tourism area
8. The high-tech zones
Positioning development: high-tech industry incubation
9. Economic Development Zone
Positioning development: modern manufacturing base
10, the auto industry development zone
Positioning development : China’s three major car industry bases
(Excerpted from real estate newspaper : Reporter : Sung Yu)
I think in Changchun speaking, full-scale single apartment is a blank, and many major cities in the country, the development of Changchun is a city, if investors choose to invest here, is certainly very handsome returns, and competition is not very intense. If investors choose in Shanghai, Dalian, Beijing and other coastal cities investments, not only competitive but also great risks. In those cities and urban, want to have a considerable capital investment.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Changchun now against illegal secondary Housing, introduced many policies are beneficial or harmful thing, but also to be research on the sale of real estate, whether there are many pay personal income tax dispute, originally decided on August 1 after the implementation of the sale of real estate to pay personal income tax, but now they have no news.
For the real estate market in Changchun, seems inevitable can not escape speculation, almost all newspapers and magazines are sold difficult not only to queue up, you buy. However, the fact is the case? Adoption of the following analysis, you can own deduced. Changchun has the real estate market?
I think in Changchun speaking, full-scale single apartment is a blank, and many major cities in the country, the development of Changchun is a city, if investors choose to invest here, is certainly very handsome returns, and competition is not very intense. If investors choose in Shanghai, Dalian, Beijing and other coastal cities investments, not only competitive but also great risks. In those cities and urban, want to have a considerable capital investment.
Changchun this 10 districts, Changchun University and colleges and universities are concentrated in Chaoyang District and the net on District, and in several colleges and universities to have a high price, whether rented or sold, particularly now is the time for graduates from the colleges and universities around the house other than urban locations higher rents 200-300 million.
There are many fresh university graduates in the face of employment, but also sub-lease facing difficult problems, because they just graduated, but has not fixed and stable income, so in the school taught became their best option, they also used the school’s environment, and most importantly in canteens, food, saving money and convenience.
Changchun there are a lot of single apartments, but most of these apartments are personal home, not only sanitation is poor, there are safety problems, the current practices in Changchun out single apartment or a blank is now, “family-style” single apartment still occupy more than 95% of the market.
So far, the largest single Changchun first apartment “as if Home” single apartment in the second half of 2005 officially began operating “as if Home” looks at the Guilin Lu Changqing 26th Street, a total of seven floors, can accommodate more than 300 people live. From the start date, in good condition, basic guarantee for persons to 100 persons in 200 more. (Author: Wang Yuan-hui)
According to a survey, currently the single most important consumer groups apartment consists of two parts, part one is a student, just graduated from university students to participate in the work of a single apartment as a temporary excessive; Another field is the most employees, their income is not high, can only choose to live in a single apartment prices are very low. The two parts of the basic tenants occupy a single apartment about 80%, while some are part of the relatively high income groups. I think as long as services do, or like to have this part of the apartment to live. (Excerpted from real estate newspaper, Reporter : Wang Yuan-hui)
The first two components is the common feature of the income is not high, with a single apartment is their actual requirements. And the two parts of the social role is not stable, students may find a few months after the very stable income, would choose a more suitable living way, the field workers who may be returned or replaced. However, every year there are students face Du graduated, while also continuing to produce new long working. (Excerpted from real estate newspaper, Reporter : Wang Yuan-hui)
For single apartment future, I think it is a great deal of potential. First, the source is there, and the current single apartments for clients is very dissatisfied with the status quo, as long as there are opportunities; What followed by customer wishes, the wishes of any person to meet; Finally is a price positioning. Currently only single-apartment, low end customers very limited, however, the potential high-end customers all or not small, mainly to see how the operators positioning. Relatively higher income groups in their demands will be relatively high, and sometimes require more personal space, a single white-collar apartments to meet the demand of this part. Shenyang is in the long, white-collar high-end clients apartments, including three people sharing, and one of a variety of options, it is understood that the situation is still very good business.
In my opinion, if the investment choices of single apartments, I would choose Chaoyang District Guilin Road, where construction of a grand single apartment, not only for employees and students, but for a higher level of white-collar occupation, because not only here in Changchun fashion representatives, but also brought together all Changchun features snacks, a restaurant, catering, entertainment, shopping and integrated fashion fabric. Here you can see a pair of trendy young people can also find many foreigners are attracted by, here known as the South Korean city of Changchun. If Changchun what fresh game, quickly pop up the road map must be Guilin, where is the fashion symbol. And the young people now have their own habits and lifestyles, single apartment exactly meet these needs, if they can have a massive single apartment will be favored by many young people.
（Author:WangYuanHui 06/07/15）
According to the principles of economics, price fluctuations decided by supply and demand, demand, prices, supply exceeding demand, prices fall. Changchun real estate this year and the next two years the supply and demand relationship? A set of data can be used to demonstrate.
2006, Changchun City real estate development under construction, to be built nearly 15 million square meters of housing space!
According to the municipal government plans to transform the shanty towns, 2006 -2008, the three years will transform the shanty towns Changchun City 108 pieces, covering over 20 square kilometres.
2006, Changchun City massive shanty towns transformation in full swing, years of shanty towns 54 pieces, complete removal area 2.9 million square meters, will ossify pig area he 12.78 million square metres, if coupled with the normal land sold increased purchasing and storage, in 2006 the real estate development in the construction, housing area to be built nearly 15 million square metres!
2005 city real estate relocation area 600,000 square metres, real estate development is around 400 million square metres. In other words, this year’s volume will be opened in 2005 will be four times the volume of development. After three years and this year, the annual transformation is a little scale.
From the demand perspective, 2003, 2004 annual trading volume in Yishoufang 2 million square meters, in 2006 reached 400 million square meters. 4 million square meters per year by the highest terms of the next three years than in the real estate market supply and demand will be maintained at 3:1 or so.
This is far better than seeking for the consequences, the good news is : to stabilize and increase the momentum to be, real changes Sexual context slowly rising. Negative side, a housing backlog, as land, the costs Ken, that several developers have their own living and do not want high-rise buildings discounted sales at the expense of the rest. But the bad news for property buyers, and is favorable to buy potato like to farm fair as random selection, random bargain discounted.
As for the structure of products, more need not worry, if you Look up a total of Weifang statistics, more than 90% are large Huxing, 3-3, and full of enough. Villa collection, so it seems that the legend is not rare. Because the definition of the villa, the Ministry of Construction has not yet a clear concept. Villa supply, the fact they had never stopped before, never less than, and do not believe you walk around the market, those “who garden villa” “low density residential”, but are the villa alias.
The above is the recent real estate market analysis. In accordance with established practice had told a few : For property buyers : open house supply, other red forces. To developers : red-hot iron, another touch! (authors : had a laugh. 2006/08/03)
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Ji Yanfeng (2006) Changchun estate 21,330 sets of the first half of this year
[Accessed: 20th July, 2006 A1]
2. Sung Yu (2006) DC this development please comment!
[Accessed: 13th July, 2006 A5]
3. Wang Yuan-hui (2006) Ivory tower which is a series of surveys of home ChangChun single apartment shortage
[Accessed: 13th July, 2006 A4]
4. Zeng Yixiao(2006) Evil wind and empty fire
[Accessed: 13th July, 2006 A4]
介绍
第一部分
长春可以说是一个发展中的城市,随着时代的发展，它也在不断地变化着。在日新月异的发展中，几乎每天它都有新的变化。而最能体现一个城市变化的因素，就是建筑，而和这些息息相关的就是房地产，那么长春的房地产市场又是怎样的呢？
伴随54块棚户区的划定，长春将彻底摆脱棚户区，长春现在有十个区,在这个十个区中有四个是开发区,分别是净月区,高新区,经开区和汽车产业开发区.
在这四个开发区中,有不少开发的地方都是郊区,虽然是郊区,但开发出来的房地产的房价还是很高的,而且郊区的环境好,现在的都市人越来越讲究环境了,而且大多数手里有点余钱,又不知道干什么好的,都投资在房产上了,就拿经济开发区来说:去年买的房子,今年就翻了一翻,而在七年前那里还是一片田地.到处是水稻和玉米,更没有现在的经济开发区,而如今房价最便宜的也要1700/平方米左右,这个房价在长春来讲,已经是很高的了.
长春的市中心也在慢慢往这些地方发展.在其他的几个区都是围绕是中心比较近,无论是房产还是其他方面都没有什么地方可以开发的了,即便开发,价格也会很高，对于投资者来说,不能说没有利益,只能说利益不大,但开发区就不同了,现在几乎所有长春周边地区都在开发.
我写这篇文章的主要目的是想对目前长春的房地产市场做一个分析，虽然现在国内政府支持振兴老东北工业基地，会给投资者很多优惠政策，但是风险仍然是存在的，尤其在房地产方面。
长春现在针对倒卖二手房，出台了很多政策，究竟是利是弊，还有待考证，就买卖房产，是否交纳个人所得税也有很多争议，本来决定在八月一日以后实施买卖房产交纳个人所得税，现在也没有音讯了。
对于长春的房地产市场，不可避免的逃脱不了炒作之嫌，几乎所有的报纸杂志都在宣传买房难，不仅要排队，还得买号。但事实却是如此吗？通过下面的分析，你就可以自己推断出来。
长春究竟有没有房地产市场呢？
第二部分
长春上半年住宅交易情况分析
增量住宅交易情况分析
1、从成交区域排序看：绿园、南关、二道、宽城、双阳区分别占交易总量的25.9%、
24.3%、23.1%、18.3%、5.3%、5.1%
说明：绿园、朝阳、南关区仍然是市民购房的活跃区域。
2、从成交的价格去区间看：
1000元/平方米以下的价位占交易总量的5.7%；
1000—1500元/平方米价位占交易总量的20.8%；
1500—2000元/平方米价位占交易总量的32.3%
2000—2500元/平方米价位占交易总量的16%
2500—3000元/平方米价位占交易总量的8.8%
3000元/平方米以上的价位占交易总量的16.5%
说明：2000元/平方米以下的价位占交易市场总量的58.8%，增量住宅成交均价为2104.5元/平方米，低于成交均价增量住宅总量的62%，高于成交均价增量住宅占总量的38%。说明成交价位区前上移，平均成交价指数上涨1.9个百分点。
统计结果显示：中低价位住宅在市场中很受欢迎。
3、从成交户型看：90平方米的以下的占交易总量的28%；90—144平方米占交易总量的47.6%；144平方米以上占交易总量的24.4%。
统计结果显示：中小户型受市民青睐，这表明我市对商品住宅旺盛的需求，我市商品住房供应，储备相当充足，供求总量仍呈供大于求局面，从而确保房价平稳走势。
4、从成交地段看：四级地段占总量的32.2%，五级地段占总量的26.4%六级地段占交易总量的10.3%。而一、二级地段仅占交易总量的9.9%，三、五、六级地段占交易总量的82.3%。由于交通不断便利，百姓选择居住地点逐渐远离城市。
存量住宅交易情况分析
1、成交区域排序：绿园区、朝阳区、南关区、二道区、宽城区、双阳区，所占比例分别为31.1%、24.6%、18.9%、12.7%、10.5%、2.2%。绿园区、朝阳区、南关区存量房交易活跃。
2、成交价格：1000—1500元/平方米占交易总量的43.4%；
1501—2000元/平方米占交易总量的28%；
1000元/平方米以下的占交易总量的15.2%；
而高于2000元/平方米以上的则仅占交易总量的13.4%，
住宅成交均价为1288.6元/平方米低于成交均价的存量住宅占交易总量仅五成。
3、户型：60—80平方米占交易总量的30.6%，60平方米以下占交易总量24.7%，80—100平方米占交易总量的15.4%，100平方米以上占交易总量的29.4%，80平方米以下的中小户型在二手房市场仍然紧。
4、成交地段： 四级地段占交易总量的24.2%；
五级地段占交易总量的18.9%；
三级地段占交易总量的17.3%。
一、 二级地段仅占交易总量的22.7%；
三、四、五级地段时存量房交易活跃地段。
（记者：纪岩峰 实习记者：王磊）
从以上材料可以看出，长春的房产价格和交易情况，通过分析我们可以知道，哪些是供大于求的，哪些是供不应求的，
长春各区未来的发展规划
1、朝阳区
发展定位：城市的商业中心
朝阳区商业发达，分区规划突出了三个商圈的规划，十条特色商业街路，对沿街地块分别给出了导则指引。至规划期末，朝阳中心城区将形成“三个商圈、一个大型商业中心、十条精品街路、十二个居住单位、一个工业园区”的分区建设空间结构
2、南关区
发展定位：城市商贸金融中心
在规划期末，南关区将形成双心、多级、两轴辆带、多单元的分区空间结构。
3、宽城区
发展定位：城市工业区
宽城区是城市的北大门，保持着“南商北工”、“南优北拓”的发展战略。至2020年，宽城分区建设用地约为56.1平方公里，将形成“一轴、两带、三区”的空间结构体系。
4、二道区
发展定位：东部生态型新城区
“南居住北物流”、“西优化东拓展”是二道区的发展战略。建设综合物流、工业、权农英俊组团和商贸四个区域，发展休闲旅游、都市农业、水域经济，建设乡镇路网和加强棚户区改造，全力构建“一城、一园、三团、四轴、多点”空间发展框架。
5、绿园区
发展定位：西部生态活力新城
绿园区位于长春西部，至2020年，绿园分区规划区城镇建设用地75.74平方公里左右，是适宜人居的城区。规划期末，绿园分区的整体空间总体构架将形成“一城、两组团”。
6、双阳区
发展定位：新星山水城市
双阳城区指双阳水库以西，长双烟铁路以东。2020年，城镇建设用地约为46平方公里，人均建设用地150平方米/人
7、净月区
发展定位：城市生态旅游区
8、高新区
发展定位：高新技术产业孵化基地
9、经开区
发展定位：现代制造业基地
10、汽车产业开发区
发展定位：中国三大汽车产业基地之一
如果想在房地产方面投资，那你就必须知道你所投资的地点的发展定位，从上述材料上你可以找出适合你发展的区域。
（摘自房地产报：记者：宋玉）
我认为对于长春来讲，颇具规模的单身公寓也是一个空白，和国内的很多大城市相比，长春只是一个发展中的城市，如果投资者选择在这里投资，回报肯定是很丰厚的，而且竞争也不是很激烈。如果投资者选择在上海，大连，北京等沿海的大城市投资，不仅竞争激烈，而且风险也很大。而且在那些大城市寸土寸金，想要投资必须具有相当大的资本。
在长春的这十个区中,长春的大学和高校主要集中在朝阳区和净月区,而在这几个靠近高校房价都很高,无论是出租还是出售,尤其现在正是毕业生毕业的时候,在这些高校周边的房子都比市区的其他地点的租金高出200—300元不等。
现在有很多刚刚毕业的大学生在面临就业的同时,也分分面临租房难的问题,因为他们刚刚毕业,还没有固定的工作和稳定的收入,所以在学校找房子就成了他们的最佳选择,他们也习惯了学校周边的环境,最重要的是可以在食堂吃饭,既省钱又方便.
长春现在也有很多单身公寓,但这些公寓大多数都是个人家的,不但环境卫生不好,安全也存在隐患，目前成规摸的单身公寓在长春还是一个空白,就是现在,”家庭式”的单身公寓仍然占据了市场的95%以上.
到目前为止,长春首家规模最大的单身公寓”好象家”单身公寓于2005年下半年正式开始营业”好象家”位于桂林路商圈的长庆街26号,共有7层楼,可同时容纳300人以上居住.从开业至今,入住情况良好,基本能够保证入住者在200百人以上.（作者：王元辉）
据调查,目前单身公寓最主要的消费人群有两部分,第一部分是学生,大学生刚刚毕业参加工作,用单身公寓作为一个短暂的过度;另一大部分就是外地打工者,他们的收入本来就不高,只能选择住在价格非常低廉的单身公寓.这两部分基本占据了单身公寓住户80%左右,另外一部分则是一些收入相对较高的人群.我认为只要服务做得好,这部分也还是喜欢到公寓来住的.
（作者：王元辉）
前两部分人的共同特点就是收入不高，单身公寓正好切合了他们的实际要求。而且这两部分人的社会角色并不稳定，大学生们可能几个月后就找到了收入非常稳定的工作，就会选择更适合自己的居住方式了，外地打工者也可能随时打道回府或更换工作。但是，每年都会有新的大学生面临毕业问题，同时也会不断产生新的来长打工者。
（作者：王元辉）
对于单身公寓的未来，我认为是大有潜力的。首先，客源是存在的，而且目前的单身公寓的客户对于现状是非常不满意的，只要不满意就有机会；其次是客户有什么愿望，这个愿望有什么人来满足；最后就是价格定位。目前单身公寓只是面向中，低端客户，非常局限，但是中，高端的潜在客户全体还是不小的，主要看经营者如何定位。收入相对较高的人群，在生活上的要求也会相对较高，有时需要比较私密的空间，单身的白领公寓可以满足这部分人的需求。在沈阳早已有面向中，高端客户的白领公寓，有包括3人合租，一人一间等多种选择方式，据了解，经营的情况还是很不错的。（作者：王元辉）
第三部分
长春房地产的利与弊
最近的房地产市场，好像受天气影响，同时患上了这两种时令病。
先说虚火。火，应该是最近房地产的主题词。
症状之一是涨价。无论是大小楼盘，高价盘低价盘，本地盘外来盘，统统涨价。每平米涨上千元，而且涨势凶猛。
症状之二是排队。这可是近年来长春房地产市场少有的现象。以前只听说过南方楼盘由此风景，或者偶尔看到当地开发商雇用几个民工，在售楼处欠羞羞答答地装门面，耗费着时日
，但现在可是动真格的。突出三百套房源，会有八百人排在门口，而且一等就是几天几夜。卷着铺盖，一家人轮番上岗，甚至“倒号”这类在股市绝迹了多年的买卖也在楼市出现。
症状之三是脱销。既然涨价的速度跟不上销售的速度，房源的总量比不上排号的数量，脱销就成了必然的结果。
虚火上升，按中医讲，与邪风入侵经脉内腑有关。
第一股风便是涨价之风。今年春季，中央电视台发布了一则消息，据调查数据显示，今年全国房地产市场仍将呈上涨趋势。这一说客不得了，咱老百姓知道啥，得信权威啊。开发商更是借机大肆宣扬，房子要涨价，要买得快啊。火借风势，风助火威，这涨价之风遍鼓起了楼市之火。
第二股风刮得是土地限量供应。虽然说的是北京和上海等大城市，但长春呢，都是隔壁的邻居，没准明天长春的土地也限量，那就更不好买房了。
第三股风吹得比较专业，说的是产品结构问题。据说，开发小户型的利润低，于是开发量相对较小，于是成了紧俏商品，于是赶紧买，小的住不下，没关系，搞投资啊，卖给别人，或租给别人，让别人来住。
又据说，国六条河九部委十五条都规定，以后各楼盘开发的户型比例，90平方米以下的户型要占整个开发量的70%以上，那大户型可就越来越少了。
另据说，今后对别墅用地暂停审批，那别墅自然就成了最后的绝版珍藏
根据经济学原理，价格的涨落是由供求关系决定，供不应求，则价格上升，供大于求，则价格回落。今年和今后两年长春房地产的供求关系如何？可以用一组数据来显示。
2006年，长春市房地产开发在建，待建住房面积将近1500万平方米！
根据市政府棚户区改造计划，2006年-2008年的3年间长春市将改造棚户区108块，涵盖20多平方公里。
2006年，长春市大规模棚户区改造全面展开，年内将改造棚户区54块，完成摘除面积290万平方米，骨化将猪面积他1278万平方米，如果再加上正常的土地收储出让，2006年全市房地产开发在建，待建住房面积将近1500万平方米！
2005年我市房地产拆迁面积60万平米，房地产开发量约为400多万平方米。也就是说，今年的可开量将是2005年的开发量的四倍。并且在今年以后的三年中，每年的改造规模都相差无几.
从需求量上看，2003年、2004年每年一手房的交易量都在200万平方米左右，2006年达到400万平方米。按最高量每年400万平方米计算，今后三年内房地产市场的供求比将维持在3：1左右。
这种供远远大于求带来的后果，好的方面是：方加上涨势头得到平抑，房价在理
性范围内缓步攀升。不好的方面是，大量房源积压，由于土地、建安的成本上涨，开发商的那几栋高楼宁可自己住也不愿折价销售，损了老本。但这个坏消息度与购房者来说仍是利好，可以像到农贸市场买土豆那样随意挑选，随意讲价打折。
至于产品的结构问题，则更不必操心，如果您查一查个楼盘的尾房统计，90%以上都是大户型，多得是，管饱管够。别墅的珍藏，似乎也不像传说中的那么珍稀。因为对别墅的定义，建设部到现在也没有一个明确的概念。别墅的供应，事实上从来就没停过，也从未少过，不信你转转市场，那些“那些花园洋房”“低密度住宅”，不过都是别墅的别名而已。
以上便是对近期房地产市场的分析。按照惯例还得叮嘱几句：
对购房者说：房子敞开量供应，别急！
对开发商说：烧红的铁，别摸！
（作者：曾一笑，2006/08/03）
材料的来源
房地产报
1．今年上半年 长春卖房21330套
增量住宅交易情况分析
存量住宅交易情况分析
记者：纪岩峰 实习记者：王磊 2006-07-20 A1
2．名区这样发展请你提意见！
记者：宋玉 2006-07-13 A5
3．出了象牙塔 哪是安乐窝系列调查之长春单身公寓缺货
记者：王元辉 2006-07-13 A4
4．邪风与虚火
副总编：曾一笑 2006-08-03 B1
One Response to “Real Estate in Changchun by Vivien Zhang Na”
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August 30th, 2006 at 11:08 pm
An interesting study on Real Estate development in Changchun. Quite current with the facts finding and does offer food -for-thoughts for potential house-hunters and speculators.
It is true that speculation is rife in Changchun and that the provincial government is trying to limit such practices. As mentioned in the paper, no real concerete laws have been passed so far.
When will the Bubble burst with the over-supply and accelerating price increase as stated in the paper? It’s anyone’s guess!